As Syrians have fun the demise of a tyrant, there might not be an apparent successor to take over
Among the many many moments of celebration throughout Syria on Sunday, the scene on the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus could also be remembered as one of the vital important.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the chief of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who led his opposition forces out of Idlib province and in simply 11 days dealt the deadly blows that drove President Bashar al-Assad from workplace, stood in entrance of a cheering viewers.
“This might be a brand new victory for all the Islamic nation, this might be a brand new historic victory for the area,” al-Golani stated as these within the crowd pumped their fists.
However exactly what al-Golani, 42, a one-time adherent to al-Qaeda whose group stays listed as a terrorist entity by many Western nations, has in thoughts for Syria — and whether or not he can retain management of the dynamic scenario — are among the many many unknowns now confronting Syrians.
Assad and his father earlier than him dominated the nation for greater than 50 years, killing or imprisoning anybody who challenged the household dynasty.
Humanitarian teams say Assad’s forces murdered greater than 300,000 opponents and imprisoned numerous 1000’s extra within the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests of 2011.
Even in cities corresponding to Latakia, which remained loyal to Assad, there have been celebrations, suggesting there may be widespread aid that he’s lastly gone. However what sort of authorities or chief he needs to be changed with was at all times going to be contentious.
Who takes over?
Al-Golani’s exceptional success at spearheading the navy take-out of Assad’s Syrian Arab Military now places him on the forefront of the individuals being talked about as a potential successor.
“I believe it is a new period,” stated Fawaz Gerges, a Center East analyst on the London College of Economics.
“Syria may go two methods. It may descend sadly and tragically into all-out social, political and ethnic violence or may principally start the method of social therapeutic.”
Whether or not al-Golani is positioning himself to be that healer stays to be seen, however already he is proven himself to be adept on the form of public relations the job would require.
Within the hours after HTS seized Syria’s second-largest metropolis, Aleppo, he reportedly issued orders that there have been to be no recriminations towards supporters of Assad, nor ought to minorities really feel threatened.
In an interview with CNN, he wore a plain inexperienced navy uniform devoid of any overt non secular symbols, and stated his solely objective was to rid the nation of Assad.
A social media put up by HTS even referred to him by his given title, Ahmad Al-Shar’a, quite than by his nom de guerre.
Since 2017, al-Golani and HTS have dominated Syria’s Idlib province subsequent to Turkey, controlling border examine factors, working a municipal-style authorities and finishing up de-facto worldwide relations with nations corresponding to Turkey.
Extremist roots
In his uncommon interviews, al-Golani has stated he publicly minimize ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and now focuses on governance, quite than plotting assaults on the West.
However some observers query whether or not he can translate his expertise of governing a small pocket of Syria into the immensely harder activity of working a posh nation with all of its competing religions, ethnicities and political agendas.
Talking to cheering crowds in Damascus, HTS chief Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani outlined his imaginative and prescient for a brand new Syria after the beautiful collapse of the decades-old Assad dictatorship, as ousted president Bashar al-Assad is reportedly granted asylum in Russia.
“Because the geographic scope of this expanded nationally, I believe it should most likely develop into harder for HTS and for al-Golani to realistically steer it,” stated Sam Heller, a Beirut-based researcher for the think-tank Century Worldwide who has studied the world’s extremist teams.
“I would not assume that he will be in management now.”
Heller stated the pace of the collapse of Assad’s regime was so sudden and swift that al-Golani himself might have been stunned he ended up main his forces into Damascus.
Initially, the offensive he launched from Idlib towards Aleppo gave the impression to be extra of a strategic transfer to enhance HTS’s front-line positions than a nationwide motion of liberation.
“It is exhausting to know what Golani’s bedrock principals are,” Heller stated.
Others query whether or not his acknowledged transformation away from jihadi ideology right into a political average is really honest.
“When the Taliban took over Afghanistan within the Nineteen Nineties, they promised precisely the identical factor,” stated Sajjan M. Gohel, worldwide safety director on the Asia-Pacific Basis in London.
“They promised peace, safety, modernity, after which they dominated in a really draconian manner. HTS goes to need to show itself.”
Turkey’s win
The one international chief who seems to be within the strongest place to affect no matter occurs subsequent in Syria is Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish president has performed the lengthy sport with Syria over a few years, bankrolling and supplying navy assist to opposition teams, in addition to permitting greater than three million Syrians who fled the civil battle to shelter in Turkey.
As al-Golani’s troops swept south, most of the opposition teams backed by Turkey went with them.
“The Turks will attempt to consolidate or broaden their affect in Syria,” stated Heller, the Century Worldwide analyst.
“Their supreme curiosity in Syria has been the defeat of the PKK-linked SDF,” he stated, referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The PKK, or Kurdistan Staff’ Get together, is a Kurdish separatist group thought of a terrorist group by Turkey and a few Western governments, together with Canada. It is blamed for assaults on Turkish troopers and civilians.
America backs the Syrian Democratic Forces, which Turkey claims is linked to the PKK. In one of many Biden administration’s first statements on the demise of Assad, a spokesperson indicated that assist would stay, with none point out of Turkey.
Notably, as HTS and different opposition forces had been closing in on the Syrian cities of Homs and Damascus, different Turkish-backed rebels went within the different course to assault Kurdish positions within the north and east, together with the northern metropolis of Manbij.
Whereas HTS’s hyperlinks with Turkey are extra nebulous, there have been a number of stories that Turkish navy consultants helped with drone coaching, logistics and different assist — suggesting that no matter faction finally dominates in Damascus, it could be sympathetic to Turkey’s needs.
Few contenders
As for different potential contenders to take over from Assad, few analysts who spoke to CBC Information had been keen to make a guess.
“I believe the reply might be nobody. That is my concern,” Heller stated.
Others stated the messaging al-Golani’s group sends over the following few days might be essential.
“To this point, we have now seen about 400,000 displaced individuals from Aleppo and Hama and Homs,” stated Gerges of the London College of Economics. “Reassuring the Syrian those that the rebels is not going to precise vengeance towards the Syrian individuals, this could possibly be actually a serious turning level for Syria.”
Gohel of the Asia-Pacific Basis stated the choices Syrians will make within the days and months forward are unprecedented for his or her nation.
“By way of what occurs subsequent, we’re coming into uncharted territory.”
